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1. mule

   Poll: The Australian Federal Election will be held when? http://poll.fm/210rk (blog post to follow)

   about 2 months ago from web at Leichhardt, New South Wales, Australia
   1. sean

      @zebra it begins: http://mulestable.net/notice/14400

      about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
      1. danny

         @sean Where's the option for "there will be no election, Julia Gillard will declare herself president for life and impose union law"? The wackier wingnuts talk as if that was a serious possibility.

         about 2 months ago from web at Oxford, England, United Kingdom
         1. sean

            @danny you've answered your own question: I do not consider myself a wingnut and hence do not consider it a reasonable possibility

            about 2 months ago from web at Leichhardt, New South Wales, Australia
            1. danny

               @sean but there may be some wingnuts in the stable!

               about 2 months ago from web at Oxford, England, United Kingdom
               1. sean

                  @danny any such wingnuts can create their own poll, I say!

                  about 2 months ago from web at Leichhardt, New South Wales, Australia
   2. senexx

      @mule @sean For what it's worth I voted October.

      about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
      1. sean

         @senexx excellent!

         about 2 months ago from web at Leichhardt, New South Wales, Australia
         1. magpie

            @sean Let me put it this way: I want to know if an investor today can expect a greater, equal or lesser return per $ than an investor say, 30 years ago. It doesn't need to be a precise, industry value: it's better if it's a general figure.

            about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
            1. sean

               @magpie assessing forward-looking returns is tricky. You can look at (recent) historical returns, but they'll be affected by the GFC. I don't think there's any consensus on a structural change.

               about 2 months ago from web at Leichhardt, New South Wales, Australia
               1. magpie

                  @sean That's a good point. Think about it this way: is there a trend in expected values, even if standard deviations are increasing?

                  about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
               2. magpie

                  @sean Although, on second thoughts, maybe that could be an answer: if there is no consensus on a structural change, then expected values (of ROI) remain pretty much the same.

                  about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
               3. magpie

                  @sean Yet another way to think of it: if r(t) = r(t-1) + K + u(t) where r is the return and u is normally distributed, is K significantly different from 0?

                  about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
                  1. sean

                     @magpie perhaps even simpler: r(t) = K + u(t). If you have a big negative return, you'd expect the next period to go back to usual returns rather than another negative return.

                     about 2 months ago from web at Leichhardt, New South Wales, Australia
                     1. magpie

                        @sean Yeah, that's a possibility. Would that be what in your experience describes historical returns to investment? Or is it more in line with what investors' expectations (which may be right or wrong)?

                        about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
                        1. sean

                           @magpie it would fit with my experience: large positives or negatives are unusual and are not often repeated.

                           about 2 months ago from web at Leichhardt, New South Wales, Australia
                           1. magpie

                              @sean One last question: would that be limited to financial markets or is it more general? We have seen that often (not always) financial crises are paired to recessions; would the reciprocal be true?

                              about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
               4. magpie

                  @sean u is normally distributed, with mu =s 0 and sigma constant, clearly.

                  about 2 months ago from web at Sydney, New South Wales, Australia