Property Markets (property) group

Notices

1. danny

   !property the Economist now reckons Australian property is 61% overvalued http://www.economist.com/node/16542826 (I'm not sure if they mean it needs to fall 61% or 40%, though?)

   about 2 months ago from web at 51°45'7"N 1°15'21"W in context
2. zebra

   The !property market has definitely moved from bid to offered. A real estate agent rang up to answer a query I sent in an email.

   about 2 months ago from web at 37°50'22"S 144°56'32"E
3. danny

   !property avoiding house price bubbles added to Bank of England remit http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jun/16/mansion-house-speech-george-osborne-bank-of-england

   about 3 months ago from web in context
4. danny

   !property Grantham thinks an Australian house price crash is inevitable http://www.heraldsun.com.au/money/australian-housing-market-a-time-bomb/story-e6frfh5f-1225880221197

   about 3 months ago from web
5. sean

   @danny you may be alarmed by this: low-doc securitisation up and running again in Australia http://bit.ly/9Hr8yF !property

   about 4 months ago from web at 33°52'59"S 151°9'0"E in context
6. danny

   !property the US government is financing 96% of new mortgages, but houses prices are still falling http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/11/business/11fannie.html

   about 4 months ago from web in context
7. zebra

   More on the Chinese Property Bubble from Teh Telegraph.co.uk http://bit.ly/d5F !property

   about 4 months ago from web at 27°28'3"S 153°1'40"E
8. danny

   !mkt !property CDS spreads on Australin banks jump http://www.businessinsider.com/default-fears-soar-for-australian-financials-2010-5

   about 4 months ago from web
9. sean

   @mark @danny good point. If you live in Australia (which @danny doesn't at the moment), there's an argument that not owning you're short as you pay rent, owning 1 makes you square not long. !property

   about 4 months ago from web at 33°52'59"S 151°9'0"E in context
10. danny

    @sean !property Yes, the timing would matter a lot. I'm not seriously envisaging anything like this, partly because I have no experience with e.g. CFDs and would never invest significant amounts in something I don't understand.

    about 4 months ago from web in context
11. sean

    @danny keep in mind that the bear's challenge is that shorting costs money: it's not enough to be right, you have to be right soon enough to make more than your costs. !property

    about 4 months ago from web in context
12. sean

    @danny there's never really been a CDS mkt on Australian RMBS to speak of. Perhaps see if there are any CFDs on listed !property.

    about 4 months ago from web in context
13. danny

    @danny !property Short WBC and CBA and long ANZ + NAB? (But a housing crash will take the rest of the economy with it.) Short property developers? Buy way out-of-the-money call options on government bonds?

    about 4 months ago from web in context
14. danny

    !property So how would one go about shorting Australian property? (Getting Macquarie Bank to do what Goldman did for Paulson is presumably out fo the question.)

    about 4 months ago from web in context
15. danny

    @sean !property Here's a debate on whether there's a Chinese property bubble http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J4g-H--5yg

    about 4 months ago from web in context
16. danny

    @zebra !property UK prices dropped a bit, but have almost recovered, though on falling volumes. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/04/uk-banks-mortgage-lending-down

    about 4 months ago from web in context
17. sean

    Here is some grist to the China property bubble mill [with link!]. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-mindblowing-bubble-in-the-miami-of-china-2010-3 !property /cc @magpie @senexx @danny

    about 4 months ago from web at 33°52'59"S 151°9'0"E in context
18. sean

    Here is some grist to the China property bubble mill. !property /cc @magpie @senexx @danny

    about 4 months ago from web at 33°52'59"S 151°9'0"E
19. sean

    @magpie those US borrowers never had any intention or ability to pay their interest, they always planned to sell into a rising market. I believe underwriting standards are higher here, so ppl can better afford to pay their interest !property

    about 4 months ago from web at 33°52'59"S 151°9'0"E in context
20. magpie

    @sean Chris Joye used the same data. And your're right, except that, up to 07, everywhere rates were < 1%. In 2008, in the US, rates nearly doubled (enough to declare the subprime crisis) and they've gone up 900% since. Look at Spain, as well. !property

    about 4 months ago from web at 33°52'4"S 151°12'26"E in context